The upcoming week is expected to bring significant impacts on the markets of both South Korea and the U.S., driven by economic uncertainties and policy changes. Below is a recap of last week's major issues, followed by a comprehensive overview of this week's economic schedules, corporate earnings announcements, speeches, and more. 📊
Last Week Recap (April 7-11, 2025)
South Korea
1. KOSPI Plunge 📉
Last week, South Korea's stock market experienced a sharp decline. On April 7, the KOSPI fell by 5.57%, hitting its lowest point of the year due to the announcement of U.S. tariff hikes. Foreign investors engaged in massive sell-offs, leading to a surge in the USD/KRW exchange rate to 1,467.8 won.
2. Samsung Electronics Earnings Report 📊
Samsung Electronics exceeded market expectations with its Q1 2025 earnings report:
- Revenue: Approximately 79 trillion won (+9.84% YoY)
- Operating Profit: Approximately 6.6 trillion won (surpassing the market estimate of 4.96 trillion won)
- Key Drivers: Strong sales of Galaxy S25 models and increased DRAM shipment volumes.
3. Export Decline Concerns 🚢
U.S. tariff hikes are expected to significantly impact South Korea's key industries, particularly automotive and semiconductor exports. The government is currently reviewing countermeasures, including support plans for the automotive sector.
United States
1. Major Index Rebound 📈
On Friday (April 11), U.S. stock markets saw gains across major indices—Dow Jones, S&P500, and NASDAQ—closing out the week on a positive note. This rebound was driven by comments from the Boston Fed President indicating readiness for intervention to stabilize financial markets, restoring investor confidence.
2. Federal Reserve Remarks 🗣️
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that while higher tariffs could lead to short-term inflationary pressures, monetary policy could ensure long-term stability. This statement had a somewhat positive effect on market sentiment.
Key Issues for This Week (April 14-18, 2025)
South Korean Economy and Stock Market
1. Economic Outlook and Policy Changes
- Growth Forecast Downgrade 📉: The Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered South Korea's economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.0% to 1.5%. This adjustment reflects domestic factors such as high interest rates, increasing household debt, construction sector stagnation, and global trade conflicts.
- Rate Cut Likelihood 🔄: The Bank of Korea may expedite a rate cut to mitigate recession risks (expected announcement date: April 17). Both Citi Research and ING have highlighted the strong likelihood of this move this week.
2. Corporate Earnings Announcements (South Korea)
This week will feature earnings reports from major South Korean companies:
- LG Chem (April 15): Expected revenue of approximately 12 trillion won; operating profit around 1 trillion won anticipated.
- SK Hynix (April 16): Recovery in operating profit expected due to increased DRAM and NAND shipments.
3. Stock Market Trends
- Foreign Sell-Offs Likely to Continue 📉: U.S. tariff policies are expected to weigh heavily on automotive and semiconductor stocks in South Korea, with foreign investors likely maintaining their selling momentum, contributing to heightened volatility in the KOSPI.
4. Government Bond Issuance Schedule
The Ministry of Finance plans to issue the following bonds this week:
- 10-Year Bonds: April 14-15
- 20-Year Bonds: April 17-23
- FX-linked Bonds (FXB): April 15-18
U.S. Economy and Stock Market
1. Economic Trends and Policy Announcements
- Escalating Trade Conflicts 🌐: President Donald Trump's tariff policies are intensifying inflationary pressures in the U.S., potentially triggering stagflation risks. Investors will closely monitor Federal Reserve responses to these challenges this week.
- Fed Speech Schedule 🗓️: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to deliver his semiannual economic report testimony this week (exact date TBD). Powell is expected to address issues related to tariffs and inflation alongside broader economic concerns.
2. Corporate Earnings Announcements (U.S.)
Major U.S.-based companies are set to release their earnings this week:
- April 14 (Monday)
- Goldman Sachs (GS): Expected EPS $12.51; revenue $15.04B anticipated.
- April 15 (Tuesday)
- Johnson & Johnson (JNJ): Expected EPS $2.64; revenue $21.66B anticipated.
- Bank of America (BAC): Expected EPS $0.83; revenue $26.83B anticipated.
- April 18 (Friday)
- HCA Healthcare (HCA): Expected EPS $5.80; revenue $18.26B anticipated.
Closing Remarks ✨
This week will be pivotal for global markets as trade conflicts intensify and central banks respond with potential policy adjustments. In South Korea, recession concerns are driving discussions around interest rate cuts, while corporate earnings from giants like Samsung Electronics will play a key role in shaping investor sentiment.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., Federal Reserve actions will be closely watched as tariff-induced inflation pressures mount alongside significant corporate earnings announcements that could sway market dynamics.
Investors should stay vigilant in monitoring these developments while making informed decisions! 📊 Wishing you all a successful trading week! 🚀