728x90
반응형
Market soars as geopolitical risks ease, inflation pressure declines, and innovation headlines take center stage.
📊 Market Summary
- NASDAQ: 19,912.53 (+1.43%)
- S&P 500: 6,092.18 (+1.11%)
- Dow Jones: 43,089.02 (+1.19%)
- USD/KRW: 1,359.00 (−0.98%) – Korean won strengthens
📰 Key News & Market Drivers
1. 🕊️ Geopolitical Tension Eases → Risk-On Rally
- Limited military retaliation between Iran and Israel fuels ceasefire expectations
- Oil prices plunge over 6%, easing inflation concerns and boosting equity sentiment
- Major indexes all closed over 1% higher
2. ⛽ Oil Prices Plummet → Inflation Outlook Improves
- Brent and WTI crude drop more than 6%
- Eases energy-driven inflation pressures
- Creates a more accommodative backdrop for the Fed to consider easing
3. 🏛️ Powell Maintains "Wait-and-See" Rate Stance
- Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterates a patient approach to rate cuts during Congressional testimony
- Markets now price in over 70% odds of a September rate cut
- Uncertainty remains, but the bias leans toward dovishness
4. 🤖 Tesla Robotaxi Aftershock Continues
- Tesla shares surged +8% the day before on its Austin robotaxi launch
- Pullback occurred on reports of a NHTSA safety investigation
- Despite short-term regulatory risks, long-term autonomous mobility optimism remains strong
5. 📈 Broader Risk-On: Small Caps, Financials, Travel Stocks Climb
- The Russell 2000 rose +1.3%, showing broad-based risk appetite
- Financials extended gains on M&A optimism (Northern Trust)
- Oil-sensitive sectors like airlines and travel stocks rallied on falling fuel costs
🔮 Upcoming Events & Watchpoints
DateEventKey Implications
| June 25 | May PCE Inflation & Q1 GDP Revision | Could steer Fed’s policy direction |
| July 9 | Trump Tariff Announcement | Major potential trigger for trade risks |
| Ongoing | NHTSA Robotaxi Investigation | Could impact Tesla & autonomous sector sentiment |
| Ongoing | Iran–Israel diplomacy | Key variable for energy and risk asset flows |
💡 Conclusion & Investment Strategy
🧠 Overall Assessment
- Market rebounded on the back of cooling global tensions, lower oil prices, and easing hopes
- The backdrop supports a short-term rally, especially in growth sectors
- However, none of the major risk factors (Fed, geopolitics, regulation) are fully resolved
📌 Strategy Highlights
- Increase exposure to growth and tech stocks
- Rate-sensitive names may outperform in a dovish shift
- Selective entry in autonomous mobility sector
- Favor companies with strong fundamentals amid regulatory noise
- Flexible event-driven positioning
- Major data prints (PCE) and political developments require agile strategies
- Maintain partial hedging
- To protect against oil rebounds, Fed surprises, or trade-related shocks
📝 Final Thoughts
June 24 marked a rare convergence of easing geopolitical tensions, declining inflation concerns, and tech innovation momentum. While the rally is welcome, markets remain highly sensitive to data and headlines. The road ahead will likely be volatile, so disciplined positioning and diversified exposure are key.
Wishing you a profitable and informed investing journey this week!
728x90
반응형