📅 Weekly Economic & Market Briefing (June 16–20, 2025)

🇰🇷 South Korea

📰 Major News & Developments

1. 📈 KOSPI Pauses After 7-Day Rally
   After a 7-day winning streak, the KOSPI paused as investors exercised caution amid upcoming global events. It last closed at 2,920 on June 12, showing signs of consolidation.
   
   
2. 💱 KRW Volatility Increases Near 1,370 Level
   The won-dollar exchange rate hovered around 1,370 KRW, with growing volatility driven by external uncertainties and speculative flows.
   
   
3. 📢 Opposition Leadership Vacuum Sparks Concerns
   A leadership void in the opposition party raised concerns about domestic policy consistency, increasing political uncertainty in financial markets.
   
   
4. 💰 Dividend Tax Reform Expected Soon
   The Lee Jae-myung administration is reportedly preparing an incentive-oriented dividend tax reform plan, potentially boosting high-dividend stocks and investor sentiment in the domestic equity market.
   
   
5. 📊 Economic Indicators Signal Modest Recovery
   May’s industrial output, exports, and business sentiment indicators showed signs of improvement. Markets await June’s data releases for confirmation of an uptrend.

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🇺🇸 United States

📰 Major News & Developments

1. 🏦 FOMC Meeting (June 17–18): Rate Hold Expected
   The Fed is widely expected to keep the federal funds rate steady at 4.25–4.50%. Markets will focus on Fed Chair Powell’s remarks for clues about potential rate cuts later in the year.
   
   
2. 📊 May Retail Sales & Consumer Sentiment in Focus
   Scheduled for June 18, these indicators will provide insight into inflation trends and consumer resilience, shaping expectations for monetary policy.
   
   
3. 🔄 Middle East Tensions Keep Oil Prices Elevated
   Ongoing geopolitical instability is keeping oil prices high, threatening disinflation momentum and complicating the Fed’s path forward.
   
   
4. 📈 Long-Term Outlook for Equities Remains Bullish
   Analysts maintain a bullish stance, projecting the S&P 500 could reach 6,500 by year-end, led by semiconductors and healthcare sector gains.
   
   
5. ⚖️ Trade & Tariff Uncertainty Persists
   Ongoing trade policy ambiguity under the Trump administration remains a wildcard, potentially impacting global supply chains and market direction.

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📅 Key Upcoming Events

DateSouth KoreaUnited States

Jun 16	—	Empire State Manufacturing Index
Jun 17	—	FOMC Meeting Begins
Jun 18	—	May Retail Sales, FOMC Decision & Powell Speech
Jun 19	—	—
Jun 20	—	Preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index

 

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💡 Investment Strategy

• South Korea
  • Focus on high-dividend stocks ahead of tax reform
  • Consider hedging currency risk using ETFs or derivative products
  • Hold increased cash positions in the short term amid political volatility
• United States
  • Favor rate-sensitive sectors like financials if Fed holds rates
  • Add defensive sectors such as consumer staples and utilities
  • Diversify into safe-haven assets (e.g., gold, TIPS, energy) to hedge geopolitical risk

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📝 Final Thoughts

The third week of June 2025 is a critical juncture for global investors. The U.S. Fed’s decision, key consumption data, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainty will all influence the trajectory of monetary policy and equity markets. In Korea, dividend tax reform and improving economic indicators may provide local support, but political and currency risks still warrant caution. As always, a well-balanced portfolio with a mix of growth and defense is essential for navigating uncertain waters.