🇰🇷🇺🇸 Weekly Outlook for the Korean and U.S. Economies and Stock Markets (April 28 – May 2, 2025)

"Uncertainty Amid Tech Earnings and Rate Outlook… Focus on Economic Indicators and Policies"

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📌 Key Schedules and Market Issues

🇰🇷 Korean Economy and Stock Market

• Q1 GDP Falls Short of Expectations, Growth Concerns Rise
  According to the Bank of Korea, real GDP for Q1 2025 decreased by 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, falling short of forecasts. This was attributed to a combination of sluggish exports and weakened domestic demand, heightening concerns over an economic slowdown.
  
  
• Possibility of Interest Rate Cut in May
  Considering the slowing economy and stabilized inflation, there is rising speculation that the Bank of Korea may cut its benchmark rate at the May monetary policy meeting. Some analysts predict a 25 basis point cut.
  
  
• Expectations for MSCI Developed Market Index Inclusion
  The Financial Services Commission stated that the chances of Korea being included in the MSCI Developed Market Index have increased. This is expected to positively impact the market by attracting more foreign investment and boosting overall confidence.
  
  
• Continued Net Selling by Foreign Investors
  In March, foreign investors net sold 1.64 trillion KRW of Korean stocks, marking the eighth consecutive month of net selling. Analysts attribute this trend to concerns over global rate hikes and geopolitical risks.

🇺🇸 U.S. Economy and Stock Market

• Big Tech Earnings in Focus
  This week, major tech companies including Apple, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta are scheduled to release their Q1 earnings. Their results are expected to serve as a key catalyst for overall market direction.
  
  
• April Jobs Report to Be Released
  Scheduled for release on May 2, the April employment report is seen as a crucial indicator for gauging the Fed's future monetary policy. Markets are forecasting an increase of approximately 135,000 non-farm payroll jobs.
  
  
• Expectations for Eased Trade Tensions
  The U.S. government is reportedly developing a framework for tariff negotiations with major trading partners, with hopes of reaching agreements within the next 3–4 weeks. This is seen as a positive sign for easing global trade tensions.
  
  
• Concerns Over Weakening Consumer Sentiment
  Recent declines in consumer confidence are raising concerns over a potential economic slowdown. This trend could influence the Fed’s policy stance moving forward.

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📅 Summary of Key Events

• April 28 (Monday): Earnings reports from Domino’s Pizza, NXP Semiconductors
• April 29 (Tuesday): Earnings reports from Starbucks, Snap, Visa, UPS, PayPal, Coca-Cola
• April 30 (Wednesday): Korea’s April CPI release, earnings reports from Microsoft, Meta, Qualcomm
• May 1 (Thursday): Korean markets closed for Labor Day, earnings reports from Apple, Amazon
• May 2 (Friday): U.S. April Jobs Report release, Chevron earnings report

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💡 Investment Strategy Suggestions

• Closely Monitor Tech Earnings: As major tech companies release their earnings, it will be crucial to analyze their results and forward guidance carefully.
• Prepare for Interest Rate Policy Changes: Both Korea and the U.S. may see shifts in monetary policy. Investors should prepare for potential impacts and adjust portfolios accordingly.
• Watch Global Trade Developments: Keep an eye on U.S. tariff negotiations and global trade developments, and reassess investment strategies related to impacted sectors.

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This week is expected to bring significant volatility to the markets in both Korea and the United States, given the series of major economic indicators and corporate earnings announcements. We recommend that investors closely analyze these factors and make prudent, well-informed investment decisions.