🇺🇸 U.S. Market Wrap-Up – Friday, April 18, 2025Markets End Mixed Amid Trade Tensions and Growth Concerns

On Friday, April 18, U.S. markets closed with mixed results. Investors adopted a cautious stance ahead of major earnings releases and amid persistent concerns over global trade tensions and economic slowdown.

• NASDAQ: 16,286.45 (-0.13%)
• S&P 500: 5,282.70 (+0.13%)
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: 39,142.23 (-0.38%)
• USD/KRW Exchange Rate: 1,419.50 KRW (+0.18%)

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🌐 Key Issues & Market Drivers

1. Trade Tensions and Recession Fears

According to a recent Reuters survey, aggressive U.S. tariff policies have raised the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to 45%—the highest level since December 2023. This has dampened corporate sentiment and consumer confidence.
🔗 Source – Reuters

2. IMF Lowers Global Growth Outlook

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised its global economic growth forecast downward due to new U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods. The IMF warned that protectionist trade policies could have a detrimental effect on the world economy.
🔗 Source – The Times

3. Technical Analyst Warns of Market Weakness

David Keller, Chief Strategist at Sierra Alpha Research, noted signs of technical weakness in the market and warned of a potential further downturn. He recommended a defensive approach, favoring consumer staples, defense stocks, and gold.

4. Fed Chair Cautions on Economic Outlook Amid Tariffs

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed concern that ongoing tariff policies could worsen inflation and unemployment, complicating the Fed’s path to meeting its dual mandate.
🔗 Source – KLTV

5. Manufacturing Push Faces Labor Market Reality

Despite President Trump’s efforts to revive traditional manufacturing jobs via tariffs, many Americans are reluctant to take these roles. Low pay, automation, and poor working conditions have made such positions unattractive.
🔗 Source – Business Insider

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🔍 Investment Insights

• Defensive Portfolio Positioning: With macro uncertainties persisting, investors are leaning toward defensive assets like consumer staples, defense contractors, and gold.
• Upcoming Earnings Season: Major corporate earnings releases next week may significantly influence market direction and investor sentiment.
• Monetary Policy Caution: With inflation risks lingering, expectations for interest rate cuts remain muted, keeping attention squarely on Fed communications.
• Global Trade Cooperation Urged: The IMF has emphasized the need for international economic cooperation amid rising protectionism and growing trade friction.

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📝 Final Thoughts

U.S. markets closed mixed today as investors grapple with economic headwinds and ongoing trade disputes. As the earnings season kicks off and policy uncertainties remain, cautious investing and close monitoring of macroeconomic signals are more important than ever. The path forward will be shaped by both global dynamics and domestic policy responses.